《A Week Ahead》Key financial and economic events to watch in the coming week:

*Lack of surprises on trade from Xi-Trump meeting*

　　After Chinese President Xi Jinping left the United States, both the Chinese and U.S. governments released a list of consensus outcomes from the Xi-Trump meeting, including building a "constructive strategic stability relationship between China and the U.S. based on respect, fairness, and reciprocity," agreeing to mutual tariff reductions of $30 billion, extending the Kuala Lumpur trade negotiation outcomes (i.e., prolonging the trade truce by two months), establishing a China-U.S. dialogue channel on artificial intelligence, and agreeing that Iran should fulfill its commitment not to develop nuclear weapons. The U.S. side stated that China agreed to import at least 10 million tons of coal annually from the U.S. over the next two years and to restore rare earth supplies to reasonable levels. Prior to the meeting, Xi revealed during a tea gathering that two more meetings are expected this year, indicating China's hope that Trump will attend the APEC meeting in Shenzhen in November to further discuss trade, AI, and supply chain issues.

　　However, in terms of market reaction, Hong Kong stocks did not show strong upward momentum. Instead, they fell over 500 points at one point last Friday (25th). The market had generally expected the U.S. and China to extend the tariff truce period by three to six months, or even a year, but the final announcement extended it by only two months, and China did not arrange for business leaders to accompany the delegation, meaning that substantive business and corporate investment-level connections could not be made—such as the idea of Chinese automakers investing and setting up factories in the U.S. falling through. Moreover, after the meeting concluded, the U.S. showed no concessions on export controls over key technologies such as semiconductors and high-end AI chips. Although the atmosphere of the meeting was more cordial than expected, the two countries failed to fundamentally resolve structural differences, and the overall competitive landscape between China and the U.S. remains unchanged.

*Northbound flows over the next three days key to market direction*

　　Shortly after the Mid-Autumn Festival, Hong Kong stocks now face a major liquidity test during the National Day holiday. With Stock Connect closing early last Friday ("turning off the tap"), the market lost support from mainland capital, and trading volume immediately shrank to just over HK$100 billion. Compounded by high U.S. bond yields and ongoing geopolitical tensions overseas, Hong Kong stocks plunged nearly 500 points that day, and market risk aversion significantly increased. While mainland markets remain closed from Thursday (October 1) until October 8, Hong Kong stocks will face an almost "fighting alone" vacuum period, where any overseas fluctuations could easily amplify market volatility. Therefore, the brief three-day window for northbound flows from Monday to Wednesday will become a key indicator for gauging future market trends. If mainland investors withstand the pressure and increase their Hong Kong stock holdings before the holiday, it would signal confidence in the stock market and optimism about a post-holiday "opening rally" in mainland markets, warranting close investor attention.

　　Additionally, New World Development (00017) will announce its full-year results on Wednesday, expected to continue reporting losses but with a significant year-on-year reduction, and will maintain no dividend payout. The company has been active ahead of its earnings release, including negotiating the sale of a 50% stake in the Hyatt Hotel in Tsim Sha Tsui and planning to spin off the Shanghai K11 asset for listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The market is highly focused on management's latest progress in implementing the "seven debt-reduction measures" and the actual financial improvement outcomes.

*U.S. enters "super data week"*

　　The Iran issue is unlikely to see any improvement before the U.S. midterm elections, making it difficult for oil prices to fall. Meanwhile, strong employment continues to support wage growth in the U.S. services sector. Currently, the market believes the Federal Reserve's chance of consecutive rate hikes exceeds 70%, making the upcoming "super data week" extremely critical. The U.S. PCE price data for August, to be released on Wednesday, is expected to rise 3.8% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Core PCE, excluding energy and food, is expected to rise 3.4% year-on-year, also accelerating by 0.1 percentage points. However, the non-farm payroll data for September, to be released on Friday (October 2), is expected to add only 90,000 jobs, far below the previous month's 162,000. If job growth cools significantly, it could moderately temper market expectations for Fed rate hikes. Nevertheless, the Fed's "stable inflation" goal will undoubtedly take precedence over "employment protection," so the market should not be overly optimistic.

*Talk of an epic U.S. market downturn still premature*

　　U.S. Treasury yields have recently surged dramatically. Even the U.S. Treasury's bond buyback program has failed to help. The 10-year Treasury yield has broken above the 5% threshold, peaking at 5.22%, while the 30-year long-term yield has hit a nearly 20-year high, pushing global financial markets into a danger zone. Some market participants even believe a new financial tsunami is already underway. Indeed, if bond yields spiral out of control past a critical point, it could trigger a cliff-like sell-off in asset prices. U.S. financial institutions would then be most vulnerable to liquidity drying up and a chain reaction of defaults, creating a vicious cycle. However, concluding that global financial markets are about to collapse is still too hasty. Since 2008, traditional commercial banks have been subject to strict Tier 1 capital and liquidity coverage ratio regulations. Their asset bases do not involve large-scale systemic toxic derivatives. Moreover, with AI commercialization driving a boom in related infrastructure, a new technological revolution may not be far off. Combined with the resilience still present in the U.S. labor market and corporate profits, this situation is fundamentally different from bond yield spikes caused by economic recession.
 　　*The above table compiles the board meeting dates announced by listed issuers. This list may not include all such events and is for reference only. Please always monitor announcements from listed issuers.