On Friday (25th), US stocks rebounded as oil prices declined and geopolitical tensions eased. Early in the day, falling international oil prices led to lower short-term yields. Later, news emerged that US-Iran talks had entered a technical consultation phase, further improving market sentiment and prompting capital to flow back into risk assets. At closing, the Dow Jones rose 0.9%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both gained 0.5%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 1.4%.
*Xi-Biden meeting as expected, likely neutral for US stocks*
The Xi-Biden meeting placed Sino-US relations at the center of attention last week. US Trade Representative Katherine Tai revealed that the US will announce detailed outcomes of negotiations with China this week, noting both sides have agreed to exclude certain key goods from disputes. According to CCTV, China and the US reached an eight-point consensus on outcomes. Due to space constraints, this article will not list or analyze these outcomes in detail. In my view, although the atmosphere between the two leaders was positive, the impact on capital markets may lean neutral, as the meeting could be summarized as "enhanced trade cooperation, deferring discussion of differences, and no retreat on bottom lines," without substantial breakthroughs.
Regarding the US economic situation, local September PMI preliminary readings were broadly stronger than expected, indicating robust economic momentum. During the period, the services PMI rose to 58.7, composite PMI climbed to 58.4, and manufacturing PMI jumped to 57— all remaining in expansion territory. Strong data supports corporate earnings outlooks but simultaneously increases inflationary pressure, making it harder for the US Federal Reserve to ease its stance on interest rates.
Indeed, Fed officials adopted a noticeably hawkish tone last week. Hammack pointed out that the US economy is growing steadily, the labor market is nearly at full employment, but inflation still carries upside risks, and supply shocks have increased policy complexity. Barr stated directly that "further rate hikes are needed," listing past shocks that have driven up prices over the past five years, including tariffs, Middle East tensions, the Russia-Ukraine war, and surging AI infrastructure investment. He supported the Fed's recent rate hike decision and emphasized that one can no longer assume supply shocks will dissipate automatically.
Additionally, although the situation in the Middle East cooled slightly last Friday as mentioned earlier, circumstances have since changed again. Iran recently proposed three conditions: lifting maritime blockades, removing oil sanctions, and restoring regional ceasefire, promising that if the US agrees, nuclear deal talks could resume within a week and the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened. Trump publicly rejected this, emphasizing that Iran has no right to use maritime passage as a bargaining chip. Despite the rejection, both sides continue communicating through intermediaries, while US forces have enhanced escort operations. Within the past 72 hours, approximately 60 million barrels of crude oil passed through the strait under military escort, temporarily easing oil market volatility. However, the stalemate in negotiations means regional uncertainty remains high.
*Focus this week on labor market data*
Looking ahead, markets will focus on September's non-farm payroll and August's core PCE data. Non-farm payroll growth is expected to slow to 85,000, while core PCE is forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month. However, the specific impact of annual revisions to the data may attract even greater attention. Additionally, earnings from key stocks (such as Micron) are also worth watching.
*NBIS raises prices again, computing power supply-demand imbalance*
This week's stock focus is on the AI cloud computing sector, with a brief introduction to Nebius (US.NBIS). Its share price surged sharply on Thursday (24th), mainly benefiting from the company's second comprehensive price hike within the year, with H100 rental prices rising 17% to 21%, reflecting an ongoing expansion of the global computing power supply-demand gap.
Nebius does not manufacture chips but builds large-scale data centers and rents out computing power. Companies need not purchase expensive hardware but can rent computing power as needed, similar to "streaming games without buying a console." Nebius also provides software and system management, enabling clients to deploy models instantly and manage training processes, creating high customer stickiness.
Management noted that demand will expand comprehensively across various applications by 2026, but infrastructure is constrained by electricity, land, equipment supply, and construction cycles. Industry-wide pricing has risen, driving continued rapid growth in its business scale and revenue. However, from my perspective, investment risks stem from its business model: it must bear construction costs and massive depreciation itself. Should computing demand decline or chip upgrades accelerate, its financial position could face pressure.
Therefore, in simple terms, as long as the market continues to hype AI and computing power, its stock has attractive upside potential; however, when market conditions reverse, the risks of its business model will surface. Given its relatively high valuation (over 100 times forecast P/E ratio in 2027), it is recommended only for small positions on pullbacks (initial entry level between $200 and $210).
Watch the video now: https://media.etnet.com.hk/video/content/lifestyle/features/interview/2026/09/28092026_kennywan_a.mp4
Kenny Wan, Council Member, Hong Kong Securities Analysts Association
*The author is not a licensed person of the Securities and Futures Commission and does not hold any financial interest in the issuers of the mentioned stocks.
*Articles published on ETNET, whether signed or unsigned, represent authors' personal opinions and do not reflect ETNET's position. ETNET's role is to provide a free speech platform.
*Xi-Biden meeting as expected, likely neutral for US stocks*
The Xi-Biden meeting placed Sino-US relations at the center of attention last week. US Trade Representative Katherine Tai revealed that the US will announce detailed outcomes of negotiations with China this week, noting both sides have agreed to exclude certain key goods from disputes. According to CCTV, China and the US reached an eight-point consensus on outcomes. Due to space constraints, this article will not list or analyze these outcomes in detail. In my view, although the atmosphere between the two leaders was positive, the impact on capital markets may lean neutral, as the meeting could be summarized as "enhanced trade cooperation, deferring discussion of differences, and no retreat on bottom lines," without substantial breakthroughs.
Regarding the US economic situation, local September PMI preliminary readings were broadly stronger than expected, indicating robust economic momentum. During the period, the services PMI rose to 58.7, composite PMI climbed to 58.4, and manufacturing PMI jumped to 57— all remaining in expansion territory. Strong data supports corporate earnings outlooks but simultaneously increases inflationary pressure, making it harder for the US Federal Reserve to ease its stance on interest rates.
Indeed, Fed officials adopted a noticeably hawkish tone last week. Hammack pointed out that the US economy is growing steadily, the labor market is nearly at full employment, but inflation still carries upside risks, and supply shocks have increased policy complexity. Barr stated directly that "further rate hikes are needed," listing past shocks that have driven up prices over the past five years, including tariffs, Middle East tensions, the Russia-Ukraine war, and surging AI infrastructure investment. He supported the Fed's recent rate hike decision and emphasized that one can no longer assume supply shocks will dissipate automatically.
Additionally, although the situation in the Middle East cooled slightly last Friday as mentioned earlier, circumstances have since changed again. Iran recently proposed three conditions: lifting maritime blockades, removing oil sanctions, and restoring regional ceasefire, promising that if the US agrees, nuclear deal talks could resume within a week and the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened. Trump publicly rejected this, emphasizing that Iran has no right to use maritime passage as a bargaining chip. Despite the rejection, both sides continue communicating through intermediaries, while US forces have enhanced escort operations. Within the past 72 hours, approximately 60 million barrels of crude oil passed through the strait under military escort, temporarily easing oil market volatility. However, the stalemate in negotiations means regional uncertainty remains high.
*Focus this week on labor market data*
Looking ahead, markets will focus on September's non-farm payroll and August's core PCE data. Non-farm payroll growth is expected to slow to 85,000, while core PCE is forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month. However, the specific impact of annual revisions to the data may attract even greater attention. Additionally, earnings from key stocks (such as Micron) are also worth watching.
*NBIS raises prices again, computing power supply-demand imbalance*
This week's stock focus is on the AI cloud computing sector, with a brief introduction to Nebius (US.NBIS). Its share price surged sharply on Thursday (24th), mainly benefiting from the company's second comprehensive price hike within the year, with H100 rental prices rising 17% to 21%, reflecting an ongoing expansion of the global computing power supply-demand gap.
Nebius does not manufacture chips but builds large-scale data centers and rents out computing power. Companies need not purchase expensive hardware but can rent computing power as needed, similar to "streaming games without buying a console." Nebius also provides software and system management, enabling clients to deploy models instantly and manage training processes, creating high customer stickiness.
Management noted that demand will expand comprehensively across various applications by 2026, but infrastructure is constrained by electricity, land, equipment supply, and construction cycles. Industry-wide pricing has risen, driving continued rapid growth in its business scale and revenue. However, from my perspective, investment risks stem from its business model: it must bear construction costs and massive depreciation itself. Should computing demand decline or chip upgrades accelerate, its financial position could face pressure.
Therefore, in simple terms, as long as the market continues to hype AI and computing power, its stock has attractive upside potential; however, when market conditions reverse, the risks of its business model will surface. Given its relatively high valuation (over 100 times forecast P/E ratio in 2027), it is recommended only for small positions on pullbacks (initial entry level between $200 and $210).
Watch the video now: https://media.etnet.com.hk/video/content/lifestyle/features/interview/2026/09/28092026_kennywan_a.mp4
Kenny Wan, Council Member, Hong Kong Securities Analysts Association
*The author is not a licensed person of the Securities and Futures Commission and does not hold any financial interest in the issuers of the mentioned stocks.
*Articles published on ETNET, whether signed or unsigned, represent authors' personal opinions and do not reflect ETNET's position. ETNET's role is to provide a free speech platform.
