The 'Xi-Trump meeting' lasting three consecutive days concluded uneventfully last Friday (25th), with no joint statement issued and no major breakthrough strategic or trade agreements signed between China and the United States. With no breakthrough achieved, market focus will shift to the year-on-year growth rate of the US August core PCE to be released this Wednesday (30th) and the second-quarter GDP growth, with the most important being Friday's (2nd) September non-farm payroll data. With the US Federal Reserve's rate hikes still intensifying, gold prices are expected to continue their downward trend in the short term ahead of the core PCE data release on Wednesday.
Suspicion of intervention by the Bank of Japan resurfaces, demonstrating clear determination to defend the yen, supporting gold prices.
On Friday morning last week, the dollar-yen pair rose as high as 158.97, retreated to 156.94 in the evening, and finally closed at 157.28. The yen's significant rebound sparked market speculation that the BOJ might again conduct a 'Rate Check' with major banks as a prelude to intervention. Japan's Finance Minister Katsumi Katsuyama, when questioned by reporters that day, refused to confirm or deny whether a Rate Check had been implemented. However, she stated that during the meeting between Trump and Sanae Takagi at the United Nations General Assembly on the 22nd, Trump expressed concern about the 'excessive weakness of the yen,' and Takagi responded that the undervaluation of the yen 'is problematic,' reflecting high-level attention from both the US and Japan on the yen's weakness.
The author believes that the dollar's upward trend is likely to continue in the short term, meaning the yen remains biased to weaken; however, Japan cannot afford excessive depreciation of the yen, making intervention difficult to avoid. Therefore, the likelihood of the US and Japan jointly intervening in the yen again in the short term is quite high. Trump's concern about the yen being too weak may prompt US stock investors to initiate 'yen carry trade unwinding' earlier. Once unwinding occurs, US stocks could plummet significantly, thereby affecting the November midterm election results. Therefore, for his own interests, Trump is expected to actively assist the BOJ in preventing excessive yen weakness to avoid prematurely triggering 'yen unwinding.' Because once unwinding occurs, the yen's appreciation would be greater than direct intervention; and an excessively strong yen would also trigger unwinding. In contrast, intervention would only cause a short-term rise in the yen with limited gains. Thus, US assistance to Japan in allowing the yen to rebound is merely intended to achieve an 'appropriate rebound' of the yen, aiming to stabilize investor confidence in US stocks, not to reverse the yen's weakness. The author believes that as long as the yen does not rise above the 150 level, US stock investors should not initiate 'yen unwinding.'
It is worth noting that shortly after the US and Japan jointly intervened in the yen in early August, gold prices rose nearly 300 dollars within a few days. The reason is that the intervention boosted the yen and weakened the dollar, and since the yen ranks second in weight within the dollar index, its rise significantly pressured the dollar and impacted gold prices. Therefore, while the dollar remains relatively strong, it is advisable to closely monitor the BOJ's moves.
*Technical Analysis*
From the daily chart, gold prices have broken below the neckline of the 'head and shoulders top' pattern (around 4216 dollars), turning technically weaker. The outlook suggests further downside, though the downward space is limited, with a short-term possibility of testing 4019 dollars; support at the 4000 dollar level is expected to be significant.
*Important News This Week*
Tuesday (September 29)
12:30: RBA interest rate decision, forecasted hike of 0.25%, raising the rate to 4.6%.
Wednesday (September 30)
20:15: US September ADP non-farm payroll change, forecasted at 70,000, previous value 38,000.
20:30: US August core PCE, forecasted year-on-year increase of 3.4%, previous value 3.3% year-on-year.
20:30: US second-quarter GDP year-on-year growth, forecasted same as previous at 1.5%.
Friday (October 2)
20:30: US September non-farm payroll change, forecasted at 98,000, previous value 162,000.
20:30: US September unemployment rate, forecasted same as previous at 4.1%.
*This article was written at 1:20 PM on September 28, 2026
Gao Ge Futures Business and Market Analysis Department Head, Mao Weilian
*The signed and/or unsigned articles published in 'Economic Edge' represent the personal opinions of the authors and do not reflect the stance of 'Economic Edge.' 'Economic Edge' serves as a platform providing free speech.
Suspicion of intervention by the Bank of Japan resurfaces, demonstrating clear determination to defend the yen, supporting gold prices.
On Friday morning last week, the dollar-yen pair rose as high as 158.97, retreated to 156.94 in the evening, and finally closed at 157.28. The yen's significant rebound sparked market speculation that the BOJ might again conduct a 'Rate Check' with major banks as a prelude to intervention. Japan's Finance Minister Katsumi Katsuyama, when questioned by reporters that day, refused to confirm or deny whether a Rate Check had been implemented. However, she stated that during the meeting between Trump and Sanae Takagi at the United Nations General Assembly on the 22nd, Trump expressed concern about the 'excessive weakness of the yen,' and Takagi responded that the undervaluation of the yen 'is problematic,' reflecting high-level attention from both the US and Japan on the yen's weakness.
The author believes that the dollar's upward trend is likely to continue in the short term, meaning the yen remains biased to weaken; however, Japan cannot afford excessive depreciation of the yen, making intervention difficult to avoid. Therefore, the likelihood of the US and Japan jointly intervening in the yen again in the short term is quite high. Trump's concern about the yen being too weak may prompt US stock investors to initiate 'yen carry trade unwinding' earlier. Once unwinding occurs, US stocks could plummet significantly, thereby affecting the November midterm election results. Therefore, for his own interests, Trump is expected to actively assist the BOJ in preventing excessive yen weakness to avoid prematurely triggering 'yen unwinding.' Because once unwinding occurs, the yen's appreciation would be greater than direct intervention; and an excessively strong yen would also trigger unwinding. In contrast, intervention would only cause a short-term rise in the yen with limited gains. Thus, US assistance to Japan in allowing the yen to rebound is merely intended to achieve an 'appropriate rebound' of the yen, aiming to stabilize investor confidence in US stocks, not to reverse the yen's weakness. The author believes that as long as the yen does not rise above the 150 level, US stock investors should not initiate 'yen unwinding.'
It is worth noting that shortly after the US and Japan jointly intervened in the yen in early August, gold prices rose nearly 300 dollars within a few days. The reason is that the intervention boosted the yen and weakened the dollar, and since the yen ranks second in weight within the dollar index, its rise significantly pressured the dollar and impacted gold prices. Therefore, while the dollar remains relatively strong, it is advisable to closely monitor the BOJ's moves.
*Technical Analysis*
From the daily chart, gold prices have broken below the neckline of the 'head and shoulders top' pattern (around 4216 dollars), turning technically weaker. The outlook suggests further downside, though the downward space is limited, with a short-term possibility of testing 4019 dollars; support at the 4000 dollar level is expected to be significant.
*Important News This Week*
Tuesday (September 29)
12:30: RBA interest rate decision, forecasted hike of 0.25%, raising the rate to 4.6%.
Wednesday (September 30)
20:15: US September ADP non-farm payroll change, forecasted at 70,000, previous value 38,000.
20:30: US August core PCE, forecasted year-on-year increase of 3.4%, previous value 3.3% year-on-year.
20:30: US second-quarter GDP year-on-year growth, forecasted same as previous at 1.5%.
Friday (October 2)
20:30: US September non-farm payroll change, forecasted at 98,000, previous value 162,000.
20:30: US September unemployment rate, forecasted same as previous at 4.1%.
*This article was written at 1:20 PM on September 28, 2026
Gao Ge Futures Business and Market Analysis Department Head, Mao Weilian
*The signed and/or unsigned articles published in 'Economic Edge' represent the personal opinions of the authors and do not reflect the stance of 'Economic Edge.' 'Economic Edge' serves as a platform providing free speech.
