The political and economic commentary "Xi-Trump Summit" has concluded. What did we get?
1. The world watched a comedy titled "Frenemies",
2. There is a result that bears no outcome,
3. There is a super outcome rewriting the global AI industry.
"Frenemies" is a comedy that premiered in the United States in January 2012, translated into Chinese as "Battle of Friendship," telling the story of three pairs of teenagers who turn from friends to enemies and then back again during a fashion competition. As it is a comedy, it ends with a happy ending.
Recently online, many people have seen cartoon depictions of the Xi-Trump summit.
The outcome without results refers to extending the expiration date of the "Busan Agreement" reached between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump during their meeting in Busan, South Korea in October 2025, from November 10, 2026, to January 10, 2027. In business operations, this is called deferring to the next meeting. In imperial courts, it's known as dismissing court with no business concluded. What exactly was deferred? See the end of the article.
With the Busan Agreement extended to January 10, 2027, two future summits must be completed by December 31, 2026. What does this mean?
It means organizing two summits within the next 60 days, leaving Chinese and American diplomatic staff with no time to sleep. Besides the diplomats losing sleep, many others won't be sleeping either.
Recall what happened on January 3, 2026?
The United States arrested Venezuela's legitimate president Maduro and instead "appointed" a puppet president, seizing Venezuela's oil production and export rights.
On February 28, attacked Iran, cutting off oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz until now.
80% of Venezuela's oil output is exported to China (about 400,000 barrels/day), and 90% of Iran's oil is exported to China (accounting for 13% of China's oil imports).
*U.S. attempts to cut off China's oil supply but countered by rare earth restrictions*
Within the first quarter of 2026, the U.S. severed China's main affordable oil sources. China could only turn to Saudi Arabia and Iraq for procurement, but affordability is gone. The only remaining affordable source is Russia, which became the largest oil supplier in 2025, accounting for 17.5% of China's imports.
How did China respond? With less cheap oil from Venezuela and Iran, China bought more expensive oil and still smuggled some.
China's countermove was restricting rare earth exports.
How did the U.S. respond? Established five new/cooperative departments:
*Economic Defence Unit
*Office of Strategic Capital
*Export - Import Bank
*Department of War
*Ministry of Finance
These five departments share a common focus: rapidly stockpiling strategic mineral reserves needed by the U.S. Hence, the U.S. government took equity stakes in rare earth miner MP Materials (US.MP) and funded mineral trader Glencore to stockpile minerals. Of course, recent moves into Greenland are also included, whose purpose isn't national military security but its underground mineral resources. In short, the U.S. is urgently catching up on resource stockpiling neglected over past decades.
Why was it neglected? Stockpiling ties up capital, unwelcome to Wall Street and U.S. businesses pursuing short-term profits, while the U.S. government lacked funds due to financial difficulties. But now, with conflict at hand, it must pull out all stops to stockpile materials, including invading Venezuela and forcibly entering Greenland. In short, any country possessing resources needed by the U.S. will be "entered," similar to Japan's "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere," now called the "American Empire Exclusive Prosperity Sphere."
It's clear time works against China; each week delayed makes China's oil imports more expensive.
The U.S. can afford to delay for a year or even several years while slowly rebuilding strategic reserves. But if U.S. defense and AI companies lack urgently needed rare earths, they could die tomorrow—no need to talk grandly about how great America will become again.
*U.S. rushes to sell soybeans to help farmers, solidifying midterm election votes*
However, American soybean farmers, a crucial voting base for Trump and the Republican Party, harvest mainly from September to November, with peak harvest in September and October. Last year, U.S. soybeans couldn't be sold to China, and warehouses were full. This year, without timely sales and storage space, crops would rot in the fields. Trump might tolerate it, but soybean farmers won't.
Therefore, China and the U.S. took swift action within 60 days. Within this period, the U.S. will work hard to accumulate leverage to play its hand by January 10 next year or earlier. During this time, the U.S. government's spending will likely exceed any previous period, meaning fiscal deficits and U.S. debt will go high, high, high. Economists may furiously warn of trouble, saying increased money supply will cause inflation. Trump will say: "So what? Treasury Secretary Bessent will print enough dollars to cover it." Is that possible? Yes, we'll talk later.
It's pointless to speculate on China-U.S.博弈 within the next 60 days because under-the-table maneuvers are impossible to predict accurately. We should wait and see what moves emerge before discussing further.
As for the super outcome rewriting the global AI industry: China and the U.S. agreed to change Artificial Intelligence to Super Intelligence!!!
While the two men, Xi and Trump, embrace each other on the surface while kicking each other under the table, wouldn't the two leading ladies also have their own showdown? The White House hostess, already a tall model, wears 8- or 9-inch high heels—why? Just to tower over the Chinese female guest by a head, perfectly aligning with MAGA. The Chinese female guest wears full Chinese red, matching her husband's Zhongshan suit, forming a national team ensemble.
Diplomacy involves no trivial matters; how could clothing coordination at diplomatic events not be a big deal!!!
Having discussed the politics of the Xi-Trump summit, let's move to the economics of the stock market.
Starting today (28th), the last three trading days before the National Day holiday for A-shares may gradually shift from a "pre-holiday risk-avoidance" mindset to a "post-holiday positioning" strategy, making the market somewhat more optimistic than now. This pattern is historically supported. According to Wind data back-testing over nine years from 2017 to 2025, even excluding 2024 data (to avoid excessively inflating averages), the Wind All-A Index still shows a slightly bullish structure of "declining first, then rising" in the final three pre-holiday days.
Specifically: The third-to-last day is the "most dangerous" day: excluding 2024 policy interference, only 2 out of 8 years saw gains (25%), averaging a 0.68% decline, median -0.48%. This is the day when pre-holiday risk aversion is most concentrated and volume contraction is most extreme, with funds collectively reducing positions. The last two days clearly turn bullish: the probability of gains rebounds to 62%, and average price changes turn positive. This doesn't contradict "low volume"—after selling pressure weakens in a low-volume environment, minimal buying (positioning for post-holiday gains and pre-holiday stabilization) can push indices slightly higher. "Closing red on the last day" is a relatively stable calendar feature: in 9 years, the last day rose 6 times (67%), still 5 out of 8 (62%) after excluding 2024, averaging +0.23%. Markets tend to close positively on the last trading day before a long holiday.
According to Gann theory and werewolf legends, major changes occur on full moon nights. After Mid-Autumn Festival, will the market shift tone?
﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏
*Details of the "Busan Agreement" extension*
The United States and China announced in September 2026 that they would extend the trade ceasefire period of their "Busan Agreement" by two months to January 10.
*One, Background and Latest Developments*
*Extension Period: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that after talks in Washington, D.C., the U.S. and China agreed to extend the trade ceasefire from the original November 10 to January 10.
*Origin of the Agreement: The Busan Agreement was a truce consensus on the trade war reached between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping during their meeting in Busan, South Korea, in October 2025.
*Seeking a Major Deal: U.S. officials indicated that extending the deadline gives both sides more time to discuss whether a larger, comprehensive trade agreement can be reached.
*Two, Core Contents of the Agreement*
*Tariff Adjustments: Both sides previously agreed to reduce certain mutually imposed tariffs, and the U.S. also extended specific tariff exemptions.
*Export Controls: Both sides suspended export controls on rare earths and high-tech products for one year.
*Agricultural Purchases: China committed to resuming purchases of U.S. soybeans and other agricultural products. {Senior Investor, Shek King-chuen}
(Investing involves risk; every investor's risk tolerance varies, so independent thinking is essential. The author will buy and sell according to market conditions.)
*Articles published in "Economic Times," signed or unsigned, represent the authors' personal opinions and do not reflect the stance of "Economic Times." "Economic Times" plays the role of providing a free speech platform. (zz)
1. The world watched a comedy titled "Frenemies",
2. There is a result that bears no outcome,
3. There is a super outcome rewriting the global AI industry.
"Frenemies" is a comedy that premiered in the United States in January 2012, translated into Chinese as "Battle of Friendship," telling the story of three pairs of teenagers who turn from friends to enemies and then back again during a fashion competition. As it is a comedy, it ends with a happy ending.
Recently online, many people have seen cartoon depictions of the Xi-Trump summit.
The outcome without results refers to extending the expiration date of the "Busan Agreement" reached between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump during their meeting in Busan, South Korea in October 2025, from November 10, 2026, to January 10, 2027. In business operations, this is called deferring to the next meeting. In imperial courts, it's known as dismissing court with no business concluded. What exactly was deferred? See the end of the article.
With the Busan Agreement extended to January 10, 2027, two future summits must be completed by December 31, 2026. What does this mean?
It means organizing two summits within the next 60 days, leaving Chinese and American diplomatic staff with no time to sleep. Besides the diplomats losing sleep, many others won't be sleeping either.
Recall what happened on January 3, 2026?
The United States arrested Venezuela's legitimate president Maduro and instead "appointed" a puppet president, seizing Venezuela's oil production and export rights.
On February 28, attacked Iran, cutting off oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz until now.
80% of Venezuela's oil output is exported to China (about 400,000 barrels/day), and 90% of Iran's oil is exported to China (accounting for 13% of China's oil imports).
*U.S. attempts to cut off China's oil supply but countered by rare earth restrictions*
Within the first quarter of 2026, the U.S. severed China's main affordable oil sources. China could only turn to Saudi Arabia and Iraq for procurement, but affordability is gone. The only remaining affordable source is Russia, which became the largest oil supplier in 2025, accounting for 17.5% of China's imports.
How did China respond? With less cheap oil from Venezuela and Iran, China bought more expensive oil and still smuggled some.
China's countermove was restricting rare earth exports.
How did the U.S. respond? Established five new/cooperative departments:
*Economic Defence Unit
*Office of Strategic Capital
*Export - Import Bank
*Department of War
*Ministry of Finance
These five departments share a common focus: rapidly stockpiling strategic mineral reserves needed by the U.S. Hence, the U.S. government took equity stakes in rare earth miner MP Materials (US.MP) and funded mineral trader Glencore to stockpile minerals. Of course, recent moves into Greenland are also included, whose purpose isn't national military security but its underground mineral resources. In short, the U.S. is urgently catching up on resource stockpiling neglected over past decades.
Why was it neglected? Stockpiling ties up capital, unwelcome to Wall Street and U.S. businesses pursuing short-term profits, while the U.S. government lacked funds due to financial difficulties. But now, with conflict at hand, it must pull out all stops to stockpile materials, including invading Venezuela and forcibly entering Greenland. In short, any country possessing resources needed by the U.S. will be "entered," similar to Japan's "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere," now called the "American Empire Exclusive Prosperity Sphere."
It's clear time works against China; each week delayed makes China's oil imports more expensive.
The U.S. can afford to delay for a year or even several years while slowly rebuilding strategic reserves. But if U.S. defense and AI companies lack urgently needed rare earths, they could die tomorrow—no need to talk grandly about how great America will become again.
*U.S. rushes to sell soybeans to help farmers, solidifying midterm election votes*
However, American soybean farmers, a crucial voting base for Trump and the Republican Party, harvest mainly from September to November, with peak harvest in September and October. Last year, U.S. soybeans couldn't be sold to China, and warehouses were full. This year, without timely sales and storage space, crops would rot in the fields. Trump might tolerate it, but soybean farmers won't.
Therefore, China and the U.S. took swift action within 60 days. Within this period, the U.S. will work hard to accumulate leverage to play its hand by January 10 next year or earlier. During this time, the U.S. government's spending will likely exceed any previous period, meaning fiscal deficits and U.S. debt will go high, high, high. Economists may furiously warn of trouble, saying increased money supply will cause inflation. Trump will say: "So what? Treasury Secretary Bessent will print enough dollars to cover it." Is that possible? Yes, we'll talk later.
It's pointless to speculate on China-U.S.博弈 within the next 60 days because under-the-table maneuvers are impossible to predict accurately. We should wait and see what moves emerge before discussing further.
As for the super outcome rewriting the global AI industry: China and the U.S. agreed to change Artificial Intelligence to Super Intelligence!!!
While the two men, Xi and Trump, embrace each other on the surface while kicking each other under the table, wouldn't the two leading ladies also have their own showdown? The White House hostess, already a tall model, wears 8- or 9-inch high heels—why? Just to tower over the Chinese female guest by a head, perfectly aligning with MAGA. The Chinese female guest wears full Chinese red, matching her husband's Zhongshan suit, forming a national team ensemble.
Diplomacy involves no trivial matters; how could clothing coordination at diplomatic events not be a big deal!!!
Having discussed the politics of the Xi-Trump summit, let's move to the economics of the stock market.
Starting today (28th), the last three trading days before the National Day holiday for A-shares may gradually shift from a "pre-holiday risk-avoidance" mindset to a "post-holiday positioning" strategy, making the market somewhat more optimistic than now. This pattern is historically supported. According to Wind data back-testing over nine years from 2017 to 2025, even excluding 2024 data (to avoid excessively inflating averages), the Wind All-A Index still shows a slightly bullish structure of "declining first, then rising" in the final three pre-holiday days.
Specifically: The third-to-last day is the "most dangerous" day: excluding 2024 policy interference, only 2 out of 8 years saw gains (25%), averaging a 0.68% decline, median -0.48%. This is the day when pre-holiday risk aversion is most concentrated and volume contraction is most extreme, with funds collectively reducing positions. The last two days clearly turn bullish: the probability of gains rebounds to 62%, and average price changes turn positive. This doesn't contradict "low volume"—after selling pressure weakens in a low-volume environment, minimal buying (positioning for post-holiday gains and pre-holiday stabilization) can push indices slightly higher. "Closing red on the last day" is a relatively stable calendar feature: in 9 years, the last day rose 6 times (67%), still 5 out of 8 (62%) after excluding 2024, averaging +0.23%. Markets tend to close positively on the last trading day before a long holiday.
According to Gann theory and werewolf legends, major changes occur on full moon nights. After Mid-Autumn Festival, will the market shift tone?
﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏
*Details of the "Busan Agreement" extension*
The United States and China announced in September 2026 that they would extend the trade ceasefire period of their "Busan Agreement" by two months to January 10.
*One, Background and Latest Developments*
*Extension Period: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that after talks in Washington, D.C., the U.S. and China agreed to extend the trade ceasefire from the original November 10 to January 10.
*Origin of the Agreement: The Busan Agreement was a truce consensus on the trade war reached between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping during their meeting in Busan, South Korea, in October 2025.
*Seeking a Major Deal: U.S. officials indicated that extending the deadline gives both sides more time to discuss whether a larger, comprehensive trade agreement can be reached.
*Two, Core Contents of the Agreement*
*Tariff Adjustments: Both sides previously agreed to reduce certain mutually imposed tariffs, and the U.S. also extended specific tariff exemptions.
*Export Controls: Both sides suspended export controls on rare earths and high-tech products for one year.
*Agricultural Purchases: China committed to resuming purchases of U.S. soybeans and other agricultural products. {Senior Investor, Shek King-chuen}
(Investing involves risk; every investor's risk tolerance varies, so independent thinking is essential. The author will buy and sell according to market conditions.)
*Articles published in "Economic Times," signed or unsigned, represent the authors' personal opinions and do not reflect the stance of "Economic Times." "Economic Times" plays the role of providing a free speech platform. (zz)
