[ET Net News Agency, 23 March 2026] Asia plunged this morning. Hong Kong opened nearly
500 points lower, immediately breaching both the 250-day moving average around 25,108 (the
"bull-bear line") and the 25,000 handle. The open proved the day's high. Metals,
financials, and tech all sold off, widening the HSI's midday loss to 876 points or 3.5%,
closing the half at 24,400. All 6,869 outstanding bull CBBCs set up as of yesterday were
knocked out. Main board turnover was near HKD 192.4 billion, while Stock Connect saw HKD
14.5 billion net southbound inflows.

"Nip Chun Pong: If the conflict escalates, the HSI may test 24,000"

Global equities slumped on Middle East escalation risks: Korea fell as much as 6%, Japan
nearly 5%, and both Shanghai and Shenzhen dropped over 2%. Nip Chun Pong, the Chief
Strategist at Solo Securities, told ET Net News Agency that global markets are being
dragged by the Middle East conflict. US President Trump demanded Iran fully open the
Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on power infrastructure; Iran warned it would fully block
the strait if power plants are hit. While the US and Israel hold military advantages, Iran
remains a regional heavyweight, making near-term control difficult. Given Hormuz is the
chokepoint for Persian Gulf oil and gas, any disruption would have broad global economic
consequences. The US faces a dilemma: restoring control may require more troops and
spending that Congress may not approve. A protracted US-Iran standoff would weigh on the
world economy.
Intraday, the HSI fell over 800 points, slicing below the 250-day moving average and
even losing 24,500. Nip said Hong Kong is currently hostage to headlines; if the conflict
worsens, technicals lose relevance. Support at current levels depends on signs of
de-escalation in the next two days. With benign headlines, the HSI could stabilise; if it
closes above 25,000 for two consecutive days, a pause is possible. Failure to stage a
V-shaped rebound and recapture the 250-day line this week leaves downside risk, with a
further test of 24,000 possible.

"Zijin strong results and Chifeng stake are positives, but falling gold is a drag"

Zijin Mining (02899) posted record 2025 results: net profit of about RMB 51.78 billion,
up 61.6%, its first time above RMB 50 billion. Final dividend was RMB 0.38 per share, up
35.7%. Revenue was RMB 349.1 billion, up 15%. Ex-non recurring profit was RMB 50.7
billion, up 60%. Output: mined gold +23.3% to 90 tonnes; copper +1.9% to 1.09 million
tonnes; silver +0.68% to 439 tonnes.
The group proposed an A-share buyback of no less than RMB 1.5 billion and no more than
RMB 2.5 billion via centralized bidding, with a cap price of RMB 41.5 per A-share (no more
than 1.5x the 30-day average before the board resolution).
Chifeng Gold (06693) said its largest shareholder Li Jinyang transferred about 242
million A-shares (12.73%) to Zijin's wholly owned unit Zijin Gold. Chifeng will also place
about 311 million new H-shares to Zijin Gold at RMB 30.19 each, a 28.3% discount.
Post-deal, Li exits entirely; Zijin will hold about 242 million A-shares and 330 million
H-shares, totalling roughly 25.85%, becoming the largest shareholder.
Nip Chun Pong said Zijin's strong results and its 28.3% discount entry into Chifeng Gold
are positives. Given the sharp drop in gold prices, it's understandable that Zijin's
shares fell in tandem with the market today; in fact, the decline was smaller than most
major gold miners, reflecting investors' acknowledgement of its earnings strength and the
Chifeng deal. As for Chifeng Gold, the roughly 20% plunge was mainly driven by the
discounted share placement. The stock has also posted substantial gains since listing,
making a pullback likely. Even after today's drop, Chifeng still trades around 4x P/B;
strictly speaking, the stake sale should not be viewed as overly negative.

"Middle East conflict brings two headwinds for gold"

Nip Chun Pong noted that the continued slide in gold prices is putting short-term
pressure on gold miners. With Middle East tensions persisting, the tug-of-war is unlikely
to reverse soon. Elevated oil prices weigh on the global economy. While gold historically
benefits from safe-haven flows, its substantial multi-year gains have sapped upside
momentum. He added that with Hormuz disruptions and war damage to oil and gas facilities,
major Middle Eastern producers face tighter liquidity and have been selling gold, lifting
supply and pressuring prices. If the conflict persists, gold could keep falling, with a
higher chance of testing 4,000 US dollars per ounce. He does not recommend buying the dip
in gold ETFs or gold miners given escalation risks and the Fed's openness to discussing
rate hikes, which together keep downside risks elevated.