醜婦終見家翁

石鏡泉

政政經經

26/11/2021

　　日前的美儲局會議紀錄，是個典型的醜婦終見家翁。

　　美儲局定調了，美國有滯脹風險，原文這樣說:

　　「The staff continued to judge that the risks to the baseline projection for economic activity were skewed to the downside and that the risks around the inflation projection were skewed to the upside。」

　　經濟下行、通脹上行，雖無明言，但就是滯脹了，中國就明白地講:中國有滯脹風險（圖一）。

　　有滯脹風險，美儲局會怎做？又是原文:

　　Some participants suggested that reducing the pace of net asset purchases by more than $15 billion each month could be warranted so that the Committee would be in a better position to make adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, particularly in light of inflation pressures。

　　但有鴿派儲局官員仍謂要等等，原文:

　　At the same time, because of the continuing considerable uncertainty about developments in supply chains, production logistics, and the course of the virus, a number of participants stressed that a patient attitude toward incoming data remained appropriate to allow for careful evaluation of evolving supply chain developments and their implications for the labor market and inflation。

　　然鷹派儲局官員則不肯放手，原文:

　　That said, participants noted that the Committee would not hesitate to take appropriate actions to address inflation pressures that posed risks to its longer-run price stability and employment objectives。

　　你是華爾街，怎看美儲局這個醜婦的轉軚，又怎看美儲局內鴿鷹兩派的爭拗？

　　市場最會說話:

　　(1)加息次數估由一次升至三次，即可以加多了，急加了息（圖二）；

　　(2)加息，不一定是對所有債券都不好，由於短期加了息，可以控制到遠期的通脹，所以美儲局報告一出，短期美債息就升，長期美債息就跌，圖三所示是兩年期升了3點子息，但三十年期債則跌了6點子息。從價格上言，因為債價跟債息成反比走向，較是短債價跌(息升)長債價升(息跌)。

債券棄長買短　輸死都未天光

　　一般投資者被教導謂在加息期間，所持的債券年期應棄長買短，但周三晚的美債息告訴了市場的真實性而不是理論的估當然性。這些沽短買長(或買短沽長)，叫做買Spread。筆者在80年代，就是按理論教導，在伏爾克的加息行動中，受到重創。伏爾克加息，我就按理論，沽長買短，市場就一如今周三短債價跌(息升)，長債價升(息跌)，凌晨2時，經紀來電要補倉，銀行仍瞓覺，點補吖，斬囉。